# 05. Estimated Timelines

## 1. Date Anchors

- Planning baseline date: **Thursday, February 26, 2026**
- Proposed execution start: **Monday, March 2, 2026**
- 12-week target launch window end: **Sunday, May 24, 2026**
- Recommended contingency buffer: **May 25-31, 2026**

## 2. Timeline Summary

| Phase | Dates | Duration | Confidence |
|---|---|---:|---|
| Phase 0 prerequisites | Mar 2 - Mar 8 | 1 week | High |
| Phase 1 safety substrate | Mar 9 - Mar 22 | 2 weeks | Medium |
| Phase 2 Hub APIs/models | Mar 16 - Mar 29 | 2 weeks (overlap) | High |
| Phase 3 wrapper execution layer | Mar 23 - Apr 12 | 3 weeks | Medium |
| Phase 4 provisioner retool | Mar 30 - Apr 19 | 3 weeks (overlap) | Medium |
| Phase 5 mobile + website + portal | Apr 6 - May 3 | 4 weeks | Medium |
| Phase 6 templates + demo | Apr 27 - May 10 | 2 weeks | Medium |
| Phase 7 hardening + canary + launch | May 4 - May 24 | 3 weeks | Medium-Low |

## 3. Milestones

| Milestone | Target Date | Exit Condition |
|---|---|---|
| M1: Cleanup gate passed | Mar 8, 2026 | n8n and deprecated deploy paths removed; plaintext secret leak fixed |
| M2: Security substrate alpha | Mar 22, 2026 | redaction proxy + classifier + plugin skeleton integrated |
| M3: Hub tenant APIs beta | Mar 29, 2026 | register/heartbeat/approval/usage contracts stable |
| M4: First full tenant provision | Apr 12, 2026 | new VPS boots with OpenClaw + Safety + heartbeat |
| M5: Customer interface beta | May 3, 2026 | web portal + mobile approvals + onboarding flow functional |
| M6: Launch candidate | May 17, 2026 | full security/perf test pass; canary starts |
| M7: Founding member launch | May 24, 2026 | canary complete; runbooks and rollback drills signed off |

## 4. Weekly View (Condensed)

```text
Week 1  (Mar 2)   : Phase 0 prerequisite cleanup
Week 2-3          : Phase 1 safety substrate begins
Week 3-4          : Phase 2 Hub API/data model work (parallel)
Week 4-6          : Phase 3 wrapper execution + adapters
Week 5-7          : Phase 4 provisioner retool and browser migration
Week 6-9          : Phase 5 customer portal/mobile/website
Week 9-10         : Phase 6 templates + interactive demo
Week 10-12        : Phase 7 hardening, canary rollout, launch
Buffer Week       : May 25-31 contingency
```

## 5. Critical Timeline Risks

| Risk | Schedule Impact If Realized |
|---|---|
| OpenClaw hook behavior drift or undocumented edge cases | +1 to +2 weeks |
| Provisioner migration instability on fresh VPS images | +1 week |
| Mobile push approval reliability issues (iOS/Android differences) | +0.5 to +1 week |
| Token billing reconciliation defects with Stripe meter events | +1 week |
| Security findings in redaction/gating late in cycle | +1 to +3 weeks |

## 6. Confidence Ranges

| Scenario | Launch Window |
|---|---|
| Optimistic | May 17-24, 2026 |
| Most likely | May 24-31, 2026 |
| Conservative | June 7-14, 2026 |

## 7. Scope Compression Options (If Needed)

To preserve security and launch by May 24-31, de-scope in this order:

1. Delay WhatsApp/Telegram fallback to post-launch.
2. Limit initial tool adapter set to top 8 usage tools, keep others on browser fallback.
3. Ship 3 first-hour templates at launch, add the 4th in first patch.

Do **not** cut redaction, gating, approval, or metering correctness work.
